Point of no return

In the last week, I've had several instances where I've been caught in the rain. Up until last year, I didn't own an umbrella, so that was my excuse then. Now that I own an umbrella, I find myself in the following dilemma:

1) I hate carrying extraneous things, even "just in case".
2) Whenever I carry an umbrella, it never rains.
3) Whenever I don't carry an umbrella, it rains.
4) I always think the rain doesn't warrant an umbrella.

So when is the point of no return? When is it too late to go back and get an umbrella, to admit you were wrong?

I find that my point of no return is as soon as the door to my apartment closes behind me. If I made a mis-estimation of the weather, I must live with my mistake for the rest of the day. This is why sometimes I appear wet. I am.